The chaotic solar cycle

Arnold Hanslmeier - Institut of Physics Univ. Graz

Session: The solar sources of space weather

Abstract

The solar cycle can be modeled with well known mathematical functions that were also used in chaos theory. The variation of the parameter range shows that the solar cycle is at the edge of chaotic behavior.  This is well known from historical observations of intermittent period of high and low solar activity over several decades and even longer.

Chaotic behavior has serious consequences for solar cycle forecasting.In addition to solar cycle studies  it is also investigated how  methods that characterize chaotic dynamics  can be applied for space weather prediction. Is there any principal time range for for which prediction of space weather becomes problematic because of the chaotic underlying dynamics?

Some simple examples will be given.