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Predicting the magnetic structure of CMEs at Earth using data-driven coronal modeling: challenges and prospects

Jens Pomoell - University Of Helsinki; Daniel Price - University Of Helsinki, Finland; Emilia Kilpua - University Of Helsinki, Finland; Eleanna Asvestari - University Of Helsinki, Finland

Session: The Solar Sources of Space Weather

Abstract

Characterizing the structure of the magnetic field of eruptive structures in the corona is of crucial importance for advancing our capabilities to predict the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space and thereby for increasing the accuracy of space weather predictions. A promising toolset to provide the key missing information on the magnetic structure of CMEs are time-dependent data-driven simulations of active region magnetic fields. This methodology permits self-consistent modeling of the evolution of the coronal magnetic field from the emergence of flux to the birth of the eruption and beyond. 

In this work, we present our modeling approach in which the time-dependent data-driven model is linked with a simplified flux rope model. The linking of the two, together with geometric reconstructions of the eruption kinematics and morphology, allow a data-driven prediction of the magnetic field in interplanetary space to be constructed. We showcase the model by applying it to several events, and discuss the challenges and prospects of the modeling chain.


Approaching deadlines:

Registration opens:

16 July 2020

Abstract submission opens:

16 July 2020

European Space Weather Medals:

6 September 2020

Registration deadline:

25 September 2020

Registration deadline: [extended]

10 October 2020

Abstract submission deadline:

4 September 2020