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Evaluation of CME arrival prediction using ensemble modeling based on heliospheric imaging

Tanja Amerstorfer - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences; Juergen Hinterreiter - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Martin A. Reiss - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Christian Moestl - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Jackie A. Davies - RAL Space, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, United Kingdom; Rachel L. Bailey - Conrad Observatory, Zentralanstalt fuer Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Austria; Andreas J. Weiss - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Mateja Dumbovic - Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, University of Zagreb, Croatia; Maike Bauer - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Ute V. Amerstorfer - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Richard A. Harrison - RAL Space, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, United Kingdom

Interplanetary CMEs and Solar Particle Events

Abstract

We evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide-angle observations made by STEREO's heliospheric imagers (HI), which observe the evolution and propagation of CMEs through the inner heliosphere. By exploiting this capability we aim to improve today's CME arrival time and speed predictions.
The drag-based ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) assumes an elliptical CME frontal shape within the ecliptic plane. ELEvoHI is used to perform ensemble simulations by varying the CME frontal shape within given boundary conditions that are consistent with the observations made by HI. In this work, we evaluate different set-ups of the model by performing hindcasts for 15 well-defined isolated CMEs that occurred when STEREO was near L4/5, between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2011. In this way, we find a mean absolute error of between 6.2+/-7.9 h and 9.9+/-13 h depending on the model set-up used.
ELEvoHI is specified for using data from future space weather missions carrying HIs located at L5 and/or L1. It can also be used with near real-time STEREO-A HI beacon data to provide CME arrival predictions during the next ~7 years when STEREO-A is observing the Sun-Earth space.


Approaching deadlines:

Registration opens:

16 July 2020

Abstract submission opens:

16 July 2020

European Space Weather Medals:

6 September 2020

Registration deadline:

25 September 2020

Registration deadline: [extended]

10 October 2020

Abstract submission deadline:

4 September 2020