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Geomagnetic storm impact in Sweden – observations, modelling and prediction capability

Lisa Rosenqvist - Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI); Jonas Kjäll - Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI), Sweden; Andrew Dimmock - Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Sweden; Daniel Welling - University of Texas at Arlington, United States; Emiliya Yordanova - Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Sweden

Ground-Level Geomagnetically Induced Currents

Abstract

A proof-of-concept modelling capability that incorporates a detailed 3-D structure of Earth’s electrical conductivity in a GIC estimation procedure has been developed (GIC-SMAP) and verified based on measurements in northern and southern Sweden.

 

The model has been used to quantify the hazard of severe GICs in the Swedish power grid based on historical geomagnetic disturbances and a worst case "perfect" storm. During three of the historical storms there was an observed impact in the Swedish power network. The observed location and time of the impacts are investigated. It is shown that the impacts are closely related to large rapid magnetic variations over Scandinavia and occur in a region av enhanced electric fields due to the combined effect of the regional low crustal conductivity in combination with 3D effects due to neighbouring high conductivity regions.

Furthermore, the prediction capability of the Space Weather Modelling Framework (SWMF) is evaluated by investigating the capability to reproduce the observed disturbances over Scandinavia that are likely to be responsible for the impacts. Although SWMF does capture parts of the GMDs it cannot reproduce either the magnitude nor the regional variation. Consequently, the predicted GICs will be underestimated in the region of the observed impacts.


Approaching deadlines:

Registration opens:

16 July 2020

Abstract submission opens:

16 July 2020

European Space Weather Medals:

6 September 2020

Registration deadline:

25 September 2020

Registration deadline: [extended]

10 October 2020

Abstract submission deadline:

4 September 2020