Magnetofrictionally Modelling the Torus Unstable Eruption of AR 12473

Daniel Price - University of Helsinki, Finland; Jens Pomoell - University of Helsinki, Finland; Emilia Kilpua - University of Helsinki, Finland

Session: The solar sources of space weather

Abstract

Coronal magnetic field extrapolations offer a method by which the structure of the magnetic field can be characterised. However, due to their static nature, assessing the stability of the magnetic field is difficult using such methods. Here we perform data-driven time-dependent magnetofrictional modelling of the flux rope that erupted on 28 December, 2015 from AR 12473. The simulation produces a clear flux rope that goes on to eject through the upper boundary of the domain. By performing additional simulations where the photospheric driving is halted at different times we are able to probe the stability of the flux rope. The point of instability is found to coincide with being within a region of sufficiently rapid decay of the overlying field. Consequently we conclude that the flux rope erupts due to the torus instability. These results highlight the potential of such data-driven magnetofrictional simulations to model coronal dynamics and provide crucial input for space weather prediction-oriented models.