Development of service to monitor and forecast ionosphere scintillation in high latitudes 

Lidia Nikitina - Natural Resources Canada; Robyn Fiori - Natural Resources Canada, Canada

Session: Aviation

Abstract

Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) develop an operational service for aviation to provide monitoring and forecast of scintillation activity in the auroral zone for safe operation of aviation including cross-arctic flights. Small-scale disturbances in the ionosphere related to space weather activity cause phase and amplitude scintillation of a radio-frequency signal and can lead to degrading of accuracy and availability of GNSS service. Phase scintillation activity (sigma_phi) is often observed in high latitude ionosphere. This work presents an analysis of scintillation activity at high latitudes across Canada together with local geomagnetic activity. Comparison was made with use of geomagnetic data recorded by NRCan observatories and scintillation data from the Canadian High Arctic Ionosphere Network (CHAIN).   This comparison demonstrates that the ionosphere scintillation, its intensity and duration, are strongly related to local geomagnetic disturbances. Analysis of this regression model, its stability and statistical significance will be used for further development of NRCan operational ionosphere scintillation service for providing space weather advisories according to International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) guidance.