Real time physics-based solar wind forecasts for SafeSpace 

Rui Pinto - IRAP/CNRS & LDE3/CEA Saclay; Rungployphan Kieokaew - IRAP/CNRS, France; Benoît Lavraud - IRAP/CNRS, France; Vincent Génot - IRAP/CNRS, France; Myriam Bouchemit - IRAP/CNRS, France; Alexis Rouillard - IRAP/CNRS, France; Stefaan Poedts - CmPA, KU Leuven & University of Maria Curie-Skodowska, Belgium; Evangelia Samara - CmPA, KU Leuven & Royal Observatory of Belgium, Belgium; Antoine Brunet - ONERA, Toulouse, France; Sébastien Bourdarie - ONERA, Toulouse, France; Ioannis Daglis - National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece 

Session: R20 and development of services

Abstract

We present the solar wind forecast module of the Sun – interplanetary space – Earth’s magnetosphere chain of the H2020 SafeSpace project. The wind modelling pipeline, developed at  IRAP, performs real-time robust simulations of the solar wind from the surface of the Sun up to L1, from which magnetospheric indices are determined using a neural network.

The pipeline combines synergistically different mature research models: determination of the background coronal magnetic field, computation of solar wind acceleration profiles (1 to 90 solar radii), propagation across the heliosphere and formation of CIRs (up to 1 AU or more), estimation of synthetic diagnostics (white-light and EUV imaging, in-situ time-series) and comparison to observations and spacecraft measurements. Different magnotograms sources (WSO, GONG, ADAPT) can be combined, as well as coronal field reconstruction methods (PFSS, NLFFF), wind models (MULTI-VP), and heliospheric propagation models (CDPP/AMDA 1DMHD, EUHFORIA), magnetospheric indices neural network (ONERA). We tested the wind forecasts against different in-situ observatories using a dynamic time-warping metric. We provide a web-based service that continuously supplies a full set of physical parameters (wind speed, density, temperature, magnetic field, phase speeds) of the solar wind up to 6-7 days in advance, at a time cadence compatible with other space weather applications.