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Prediction of the in situ coronal mass ejection rate for solar cycle 25: Implications for Parker Solar Probe in situ observations

Christian Möstl - Space Research Institute, Austria; Andreas J. Weiss - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Rachel L. Bailey - Conrad Observatory, Zentralanstalt fu ̈r Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Austria; Martin A. Reiss - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Tanja Amerstorfer - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Jürgen Hinterreiter - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Maike Bauer - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Scott W. McIntosh - National Center for Atmospheric Research, United States; Noe Lugaz - Space Science Center, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, United States; David Stansby - Mullard Space Science Laboratory, University College London, United Kingdom

Session: Interplanetary CMEs and Solar Particle Events


The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter missions are designed to make groundbreaking observations of the Sun and interplanetary space within this decade. We show that a particularly interesting in situ observation of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) by PSP may arise during close solar flybys (< 0.1 AU). During these times, the same magnetic flux rope inside an ICME could be observed in situ by PSP twice, by impacting its frontal part as well as its leg. Investigating the odds of this situation, we forecast the ICME rate in solar cycle 25 based on 2 models for the sunspot number (SSN). We calculate that between 1 and 7 ICMEs will be observed by PSP at heliocentric distances < 0.1 AU until 2025, including 1 sigma uncertainties. We model the flux rope signatures of such a double-crossing event with our 3DCORE flux rope model, showing a telltale elevation of the radial magnetic field component Br and a sign reversal in Bn normal to the solar equator, which is in contrast to the classic field rotation in the first encounter. This holds considerable promise to determine the structure of CMEs close to their origin in the solar corona.

Approaching deadlines:

Registration opens:

16 July 2020

Abstract submission opens:

16 July 2020

European Space Weather Medals:

6 September 2020

Registration deadline:

25 September 2020

Registration deadline: [extended]

10 October 2020

Abstract submission deadline:

4 September 2020