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Extending the Energy Range of the SEPSTER SEP Prediction Scheme

Alessandro Bruno - Catholic University of America; Ian Richardson - University of Maryland, College Park, United States

Session: Interplanetary CMEs and Solar Particle Events


SEPSTER (SEP predictions inspired by STEReo observations; Richardson et al., Space Weather, 16, 1862, 2018) is an empirical model that predicts the peak intensity of 14-24 MeV protons in solar energetic particle (SEP) events based on a relationship between SEP peak intensity and the speed and direction relative to the observer of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME).  To extend the prediction energy range, one simple approach is to determine the numerical ratio of the intensities in the desired energy range and for 14-24 MeV protons in a sample of SEP events, then multiply the predicted 14-24 MeV proton intensity by this ratio to make a prediction for the desired energy range.  For example, the GOES > 10 MeV (>100 MeV) integral flux (in pfu) is around 20 (0.2) times the intensity at 14-24 MeV (in (MeV s cm2 sr)-1).   

Here we discuss a development of SEPSTER using observations from the GOES, PAMELA and STEREO spacecraft to develop a new parameterization of the proton spatial distribution at 1 AU at energies ranging from 10 MeV to 130 MeV.  This analysis also provides insight into the longitudinal distribution of SEPs at 1 AU over this extended energy range.

Approaching deadlines:

Registration opens:

16 July 2020

Abstract submission opens:

16 July 2020

European Space Weather Medals:

6 September 2020

Registration deadline:

25 September 2020

Registration deadline: [extended]

10 October 2020

Abstract submission deadline:

4 September 2020