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Differences in the arrival time and speed predictions of CMEs seen from two vantage points

Jürgen Hinterreiter - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Tanja Amerstorfer - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Martin A. Reiss - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Christian Möstl - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Manuela Temmer - Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Austria; Maike Bauer - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Ute V. Amerstorfer - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Rachel L. Bailey - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Andreas J. Weiss - Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Jackie A. Davies - RAL Space, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Campus, United Kingdom; Luke A. Barnard - Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Mathew J. Owens - Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Session: Interplanetary CMEs and Solar Particle Events


Abstract

We present a statistical study on the prediction of CME arrival time and speed using the drag-based ensemble model ELEvoHI (ELlipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Imager observations). ELEvoHI employs STEREO/HI (Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory/HeliosphericImager) data and assumes an elliptical shape for the CME front. The drag force exerted by the ambient solar wind influences the dynamic evolution of CMEs during propagation. To account for this effect, we use the WSA/HUX (Wang-Sheeley-Arge/Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation) model combination, which computes the ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space. We select 12 CMEs that show clear signatures in HI images, are Earth-directed, and propagate close to the ecliptic plane. A comparison of the predicted arrival time and speed for each CME based on the inputs from the two STEREO vantage points is carried out. The mean arrival time shows a difference of 6.5 hrs and the mean arrival speed a difference of 63 km s-1 between the predictions from the two STEREO viewpoints. Our results indicate that a more structured ambient solar wind leads to larger differences between STEREO-A and STEREO-B CME arrival time predictions.



Approaching deadlines:

Registration opens:

16 July 2020

Abstract submission opens:

16 July 2020

European Space Weather Medals:

6 September 2020

Registration deadline:

25 September 2020

Registration deadline: [extended]

10 October 2020

Abstract submission deadline:

4 September 2020