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A comparison of CME arrival time and speed predictions using STEREO-HI beacon and science data with the ELEvoHI model

Maike Bauer - Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Tanja Amerstorfer - Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Jürgen Hinterreiter - Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Christian Möstl - Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Jackie Davies - Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, United Kingdom; Ute Amerstorfer - Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Rachel Bailey - Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Austria; Martin Reiss - Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria; Andreas Weiss - Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria

Session: Interplanetary CMEs and Solar Particle Events


Abstract

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the catalysts of the strongest geomagnetic storms, can have severe effects on critical technological infrastructure on Earth and in near-Earth space. To be able to mitigate the potential consequences of a strong CME, the development of models that accurately predict CME arrival time is of great importance. The Ellipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Imager (HI) observations (ELEvoHl) can predict the arrival of CMEs using data from STEREO’s HI instruments. HI data is available as high-resolution science data, which is downlinked every few days and low-resolution beacon data, which is downlinked in near real-time. Therefore, beacon data must be used to allow for real-time predictions. After performing a series of data reduction procedures focused on improving the quality of the beacon data, we compile the resulting images into time-elongation maps (J-maps). We track the leading edge of each selected CME event by hand, resulting in a series of time-elongation points which function as input for the ELEvoHI model. We compare the predictions obtained using the different data products with regards to accuracy and error of arrival time and speed.



Approaching deadlines:

Registration opens:

16 July 2020

Abstract submission opens:

16 July 2020

European Space Weather Medals:

6 September 2020

Registration deadline:

25 September 2020

Registration deadline: [extended]

10 October 2020

Abstract submission deadline:

4 September 2020