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Analysis of coronal mass ejection flux rope signatures using 3DCORE and approximate Bayesian Computation

Andreas Weiss - Space Research Institute, Austria; Christian Möstl - Space Research Institute, Austria; Tanja Amerstorfer - Space Research Institute, Austria; Rachel Bailey - Space Research Institute, Austria; Martin Reiss - Space Research Institute, Austria; Jürgen Hinterreiter - Space Research Institute, Austria; Maike Bauer - Space Research Institute, Austria; Ute Amerstorfer - Space Research Institute, Austria

Session: Interplanetary CMEs and Solar Particle Events


Abstract

We present an application of the 3D coronal rope ejection (3DCORE) modeling technique for coronal mass ejection flux ropes. 3DCORE is a forward simulation model that describes CMEs as a torus-like structure that expands self-similarly within the heliosphere. It furthermore incorporates a drag-based model that can slow down or accelerate the CME depending on the background solar wind velocity and contains an embedded analytical Gold-Hoyle-like magnetic field. The model is combined with an approximate Bayesian Computation sequential Monte-Carlo (ABC-SMC) algorithm that performs the fitting of the flux rope measurement and allows us to estimate the error ranges on the inferred parameters. In this work, we show the application of our method to a test case with synthetically generated measurements and an event captured by Parker Solar Probe (PSP) shortly after its first fly-by of the Sun on 2018 November 12 at 0.25 AU.



Approaching deadlines:

Registration opens:

16 July 2020

Abstract submission opens:

16 July 2020

European Space Weather Medals:

6 September 2020

Registration deadline:

25 September 2020

Registration deadline: [extended]

10 October 2020

Abstract submission deadline:

4 September 2020