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Evaluating Model Advancements for Predicting CME Arrival Time - CCMC/NOAA SWPC Partnership Final Report

Leila Mays - NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, United States

Session: Interplanetary CMEs and Solar Particle Event


In 2017 NOAA SWPC and CCMC started a new project to assess improvements in CME arrival time forecasts at Earth using the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model driven by data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) ground observatories. These outputs are then fed into the coupled Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) - ENLIL model and compared to an operational version of WSA-ENLIL (without ADAPT). The overall three-year project consisted of multiple simulation validation studies for the entire event set (1292 simulations) including benchmark runs driven by single GONG maps and ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL runs driven by time-dependent sequence of maps. For all 38 events, within each model version/settings combination, the CME arrival time error decreased by 0.2 to 0.9 hours when using a sequence of time-dependent zero-point corrected magnetograms compared to using single magnetogram input. Notably for the 5 events in the period 2017-2019 when more reliable zero-point corrected magnetograms were available, the ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL CME arrival time error decreased by 5.8 (+8.6,-7.6) hours for time-dependent ADAPT compared to the single map driven benchmark.

Approaching deadlines:

Registration opens:

16 July 2020

Abstract submission opens:

16 July 2020

European Space Weather Medals:

6 September 2020

Registration deadline:

25 September 2020

Registration deadline: [extended]

10 October 2020

Abstract submission deadline:

4 September 2020