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Three Dimensional Simulations of Solar Wind Preconditioning and the 23 July 2012 Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection 

Ravindra Desai - Imperial College London, UK; Han Zhang - Durham University, UK; Emma Davies - Imperial College London, UK; Julia Stawarz - Imperial College London, UK; Joan Mico-Gomez - Imperial College London, UK; Pilar Iváñez Ballesteros - Imperial College London, UK

Session: Interplanetary CMEs and Solar Particle Events 


Predicting the large-scale eruptions from the solar corona and their propagation through interplanetary space remains an outstanding challenge. Here, we describe the development of three dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the inner heliosphere using the simulation code PLUTO. The model implementation provides an efficient method of accurately reproducing the three-dimensional structure of the solar wind and handles impulsive phenomena such as Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) (Desai et al. 2020, The simulations presented here are then applied to study the extreme Carrington-scale ICME of 2012 July 23.  The simulated time-series is shown to closely match that of STEREO-A and, to constrain the impact of solar wind preconditioning, the launch-time of this event is then varied with regards to an initial 19 July ICME. These results indicate that the 23 July ICME was, remarkably, mostly unaffected by events prior and would therefore have travelled even faster had it erupted closer in time to the 19 July event where it would have experienced even lower drag forces. The preconditioning window induced by an initial ICME presents a quantifiable prediction that can be used by current space weather forecasting efforts to estimate the increased likelihood of a severe space weather event.

Approaching deadlines:

Registration opens:

16 July 2020

Abstract submission opens:

16 July 2020

European Space Weather Medals:

6 September 2020

Registration deadline:

25 September 2020

Registration deadline: [extended]

10 October 2020

Abstract submission deadline:

4 September 2020