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Using real-time Polar Cap (PC) indices to predict magnetic storm developments

Peter Stauning - Danish Meteorological Institute

Session: Earth's Magnetosphere and Radiation Belts


The present work examines the validity of previously derived relations between polar cap and ring current indices when used in real time applications. Polar cap (PC) indices are derived in simulated real-time versions by using past data only from -40 to -1 days up to current time in the construction of the quiet reference levels (QDCs) for the magnetic data. From analyses spanning a decade (2009-2018), equivalent ASY-H index values were derived from simulated real-time PCN (North) and PCS (South) indices. For cases of strong magnetic storms (Dst(peak)<-100 nT, the equivalent ASY-H indices were found to agree well with reported (real) ASY-H index values with rms differences less than 12 nT. The simulated real-time indices have been used in a PC-based source function to derive equivalent values of the total ring current indices Dst (or SYM-H) up to one hour ahead of time. With integration throughout 2009-2018 the simulated real-time (equivalent) Dst indices displayed close agreement with real Dst index values with rms differences less than 13 nT. The applied method could be used without modifications to generate PC index values and derived ASY-H and Dst (or SYM-H) index values in real-time space weather applications.

Approaching deadlines:

Registration opens:

16 July 2020

Abstract submission opens:

16 July 2020

European Space Weather Medals:

6 September 2020

Registration deadline:

25 September 2020

Registration deadline: [extended]

10 October 2020

Abstract submission deadline:

4 September 2020